Good evening,

Another year of AFL is upon us. Shock improvers, surprise losers, sacked coaches, off field indiscretions, and more!

Already, this is shaping up as the best year Essendon will enjoy in recent memory. My estimate is for us to finish somewhere between 8th and 12th. Courageously, I am going to go out on a limb now and predict a finals appearance for ‘King’ James and the boys. The lid is well and truly off!

Why so optimistic? Four simple reasons:

1. ‘Disunity is death’. The Essendon Football Club is united again after three and a half years of turmoil following the messy ‘assassination’ of Kevin Sheedy, the bumbling along of the Horsburgh/Jackson period, the flirtation with Michael Voss leading to the hasty and disastrous coaching appointment of Matthew Knights; and more recently many months of senior management dithering as the club plunged to it’s lowest depths on and the off field in decades last year. David Evans, the board and management team finally found their vision, spine and mojo, amply demonstrated by the assembling of the off-field team mentioned below, and the courageous Windy Hill relocation decision;
2. The recruitment of the best coaching & support team in the AFL, Hird, Thompson, Wellman, Goodwin, McCartney, supported by Dean Wallis in Player Development and Danny Corcoran looking after Player Welfare. An outstanding off-field team that will bear significant fruit in 2011, but will show even greater value in two or three years time;
3. A new defensive oriented game plan. Much has been written about this in the press already. Put simply Essendon now looks like a competitive 21st century football team;
4. A pretty strong list when combined with the two factors above. This year has the best crop of new recruits I can remember for ages including Crameri (has a real ‘X’ factor about him so get him off the Rookie List fast!), Hibberd (is poised and hard-at-it), Heppel (an absolute gun) and Browne (classy with good skills) to name just four. And you can add to that list ‘virtual’ recruits like a fit David Myers and Mark Williams along with the continued development of Jetta, Howlett, Riemers, Colyer, Melksham, Zaharakis, Davey, Bellchambers, Hardingham and Hurley. With the improved upfield pressure, I like our defensive structure that includes rotations of Hooker, Pears, Myers, Slattery, Fletcher and Dempsey. Also throw in the big guys Ryder and Gumbleton supporting ‘old stagers’ in Watson, Hille, Stanton and McVeigh and I think you may find that some of our middle-ranking players who consistently ‘mailed-it-in’ may be struggling for a game under the new regime… Competition is good!
   

Are there any negatives? Only three that I can see:

1. Injuries, especially to our key on-ballers and defenders. No different to any other side really;
2. A tough early draw. Even if we play OK, we could find ourselves in a 0-5, 1-4 win-loss position which may sap the confidence of the players, both in themselves, and with the new game plan;
3. With a new, high energy game plan plus the reduced rotations off the interchange bench, and with a number of younger, lighter bodied players, you might expect that the long AFL season will at some point take it’s toll. If that is sooner, rather than later, it may limit the win count by the end of the season;
   

‘We are One!’ Robin and I have heeded the cry, and are paid up members again this year, adding home game reserved seats to our package, I even signed up for AFL Membership again (Essendon club support package). This entitled me to free entry to the pre-season NAB Cup games. I attended our games against Melbourne and St Kilda so I have seen two wins, for 'free', already. Great value!

As for my overall 2011 season predictions, stick these in your time capsule!

Collingwood are the reigning premiers, have lost nobody of substance, recruited well and are still young. Deserved flag favourites. Gee, that was hard to write! As for the rest of the ‘8’, that is more difficult. The Saints are treading water with limited fire-power and a one-dimensional game style in my opinion and if it ain’t this year then they could be headed south. The Western Bulldogs are a chance with a strong list and some youth coming through, although Johnson is a big loss. I had Hawthorn as a GF contender last year and they let me down badly but with Hodge, Rioli, Franklin and Roughead fit and going around, they must be a threat, although Brown is a spiritual and onfield loss. Fremantle are too dependent on Sandilands and Pavlich. If either of those two go down injured forget it. Hard to like Carlton, except for the Judd factor, and after the off-season mass exodus from Cat-land, Geelong has looked pretty ordinary pre-season. I have them still in the eight, but they would need to quickly find some consistency and form with their new coaching direction.

Hard to see any of the bottom nine teams threatening those sides above them. Melbourne has made a grave error in shooting their experienced club men (Essendon in’09 anyone?) while investing too heavily in youth and they will struggle in 2011, and the Swans have stalled. Adelaide are rebuilding given their retirements last year, and North, badly hit by early injuries, and Richmond who need to find support for Jack Riewoldt are the best of the rest. It is going be a long, cold season for Port, West Coast and Brisbane. I like the building of the Suns list, but history shows year one in the AFL is a tough gig. Anything above 17th would be a very successful year.

Ladder:

Collingwood
Hawthorn
St Kilda
Bulldogs
Fremantle
Carlton
Geelong
Essendon
Sydney
Adelaide
Melbourne
North Melbourne
Richmond
Port Adelaide
West Coast Eagles
Brisbane
Gold Coast Suns

Wooden Spoon: Gold Coast Suns (just)

Coleman Medal: Jonathan Brown (Brisbane)

Brownlow Medal: Chris Judd (Carlton)

NAB Rising Star: Dyson Heppel (Essendon)

First coach sacked: John Worsfold , Dean Bailey or Michael Voss

Bye for now, BomberBoy